Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
