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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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